Sunday, November 14, 2010

The cloud with a grey lining?

Maybe it's just me, but basic LAMP/WAMP stack web hosting has started to feel confining and kludgey lately. It's already a commodity, and as cloud computing gains traction, I wouldn't be surprised to see a two-caste system develop: Something like the current status quo (for non-profits, Mom-and-Pop storefronts, etc.) and scalable cloud resources (for the better-heeled clientele).

And I make that prediction because I think that the selling-point of cloud computing--meaning, that you only pay for the resources used--is actually a liability in the world of small budgets. Better to pay a monthly/yearly/bi-annual/whatever fee than be handed a sizeable tab if something goes viral. Budgets, after all, are All About the polite fiction that expenses are predictable.

Granted, some hosting ding their customers for exceeding bandwidth and/or disk space limits, but I think we can reliably expect commoditization to minimize that. Because, really, the only value-add to a commodity is to offer more of the same without raising prices--in other words, become the digital version of Old Country Buffet.

And, yes, I understand that folks on shoestring budgets will tend to be the late adopters of cloud computing. But that doesn't mean I think that the purveyors of cloud hosting are shortening that curve with the a-la-carte, parking-meter pitch.