Saturday, March 7, 2009

Mammals or dinosaurs?

I'd love to believe that our current recession is like the scene "Fantasia" where the dinosaurs turn their heads to see the flash of the meteor that ends their era. I'd like even more to believe that the smaller, nimbler "mammal" businesses will replace "dinosaurs" like AIG and GM. That Citibank's carcass will be covered by the grass that feeds more Kiva- and Grameen-like forms of lending. That tiny start ups burst the seams of their towns' industrial parks desperately trying to stay ahead of orders for green vehicles.

At the moment, this is merely a basket of hopes. Deep pockets will win. And ruthless practices will be given a free pass in the name of "the times." But I firmly and fervently believe that one part of the game has changed: Everyone can safely consider him or herself just as much an "expert" as the MBAs who were at the wheel and the media who let them wrap the world economy around the light-pole.

Just as the dot-com bust stopped HTML coders from calling themselves "web programmers," I think it's a safe bet that we'll see a similar thinning in the ranks of investment bankers and financial analysts. Maybe some will even land jobs that (gasp!) actually contribute to the GDP, rather than play games with imaginary money.